Not that you need anyone to tell you that the NFC West playoff picture is a mess … but you may be surprised to know that each of the 6-8 Rams, the 6-8 Seahawks, and the 5-9 49ers have a chance to win out and get in. Because of the way the scheduling gods laid out these final two weeks, and because of the multiple tiebreaker advantages that each team holds over the other, there are five distinct possible finishes to the playoff race — three of which end up with a 7-9 playoff team.
(Click to see the full-size chart.)
If St Louis Wins Out…
The Rams finish 8-8 and alone in first place, beating San Francisco and Seattle, and ensuring that neither can finish with better than a 7-9 season. Also, Mike Singletary is probably fired, and Matt Hasselbeck is probably looking for work.
If Seattle Wins Out…
The Seahawks finish 8-8 and alone in first place, ensuring that neither the Rams nor San Francisco can finish with better than a 7-9 season. Also, Mike Singletary is probably fired, and Pat Shurmur may be looking for work.
If San Francisco Wins Out…
The 49ers finish with a 7-9 season, and hold tiebreakers over the Rams (two head-to-head victories) and Seattle (ditto), if all three teams finish at 7-9. However, the Niners need a Rams win over Seattle in Week 17 to ensure this scenario. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is probably looking for work, but Pat Shurmur just might have saved his job.
If the Rams beat San Francisco but lose to Seattle…
The Rams would lose their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Seattle, and Seattle will be desperately hoping for a miracle win by Arizona. If they get it, the Seahawks would advance to the playoffs based on the fourth level of NFL tiebreakers: "strength of victory." And if that's the case, then it will be Lovie Smith and Mike Martz who are to blame. Essentially, because Seattle beat the Bears, and the Bears inexplicably do not suck, the teams the Seahawks have beaten have a better overall record than the teams the Rams would have beaten.
Correction: As Andrew points out in the comments, Seattle would win based on a 4-2 record in the division, while with a loss to Seattle, the Rams would fall to 3-3.
If the Rams lose this week…
They can still make the playoffs if they beat Seattle in Week 17, but have to hope for a miracle win by Arizona. In this scenario, the Rams could be alone with seven wins in the NFC West, or beat Seattle based on a head-to-head tiebreaker.
