Rams-Jaguars: Fear of Losing
October 19th, 2009 | by Will |I’m at a disadvantage this week to comment on the specifics of the game — when the only sister of RamsHerd gets married, it’s reason enough for me to be torn from the television. (I will have more to say upon reviewing the tape.) But I was able to follow along on my cell, as we lost the lead, regained the lead, lost it again, and mounted an improbable two-minute drill to the 9-yard line, poised to win.
How improbable was the drive? It was the only successful two-minute drill I’ve seen all year, including preseason, live scrimmages and practices. But it ultimately fizzled into a game-tying field goal. The Rams kicked off and never saw the ball again. From the AP writeup in the Florida papers this morning:
“It was too close,” Spagnuolo said. “We never wanted something (bad) to happen and we just couldn’t take the chance. I think it was the right thing to do.”
Immediately, I thought of the “Decision Theory in Football” writing at Advanced NFL Stats:
In football, this means that decisions are warped because coaches would fear a loss in win probability (WP) more than an equivalent gain in WP. The chart below illustrates this concept. According to prospect theory, the “joy” from a 0.05 gain in WP is less than the “pain” from a 0.05 loss in WP.
In this instance, the choice was stark, and difficult. Pass complete in the end zone = WIN. But a pass complete in front of the end zone most likely = LOSS. This removes Bulger’s best passing option, the quick-developing slant play. Look at Bulger’s splits this season:
| Pass length | Comp | Att | Comp % | QB rating |
| 1-10 yd | 30 | 41 | 73.2% | 98.1 |
| 11-20 yd | 18 | 30 | 60% | 80.4 |
While a pass incomplete might still leave enough time for the game-tying field goal, which yields something around a 50% (the result of a coin flip) win probability, there’s no guarantee that the official game clock will be friendly. Especially in a visiting stadium.
Like a lot of Rams fans, including Van over at TurfShowTimes, I was dismayed by the field goal and the decision to go to OT. I just didn’t have a good feeling in my gut, considering how strongly the Jaguars offense performed in the second half. But there is a lot of truth in Spagnuolo’s statement. It was awful close, and it was a very difficult call.
They chose the “safe” alternative, playing not to lose, and lost anyway. But the coach ultimately put the onus of the win or loss on his players, by kicking the field goal. Alternately, if the Rams had gone for the win and failed, that loss would be on the coach’s shoulders.
Tags: Advanced NFL Stats, Coach Spagnuolo, Decision Theory, Game 6, Marc Bulger, Rams vs Jaguars
By coachconnors on Oct 19, 2009
“if the Rams had gone for the win and failed, that loss would be on the coach’s shoulders.”
Also if the Rams had gone for the win, it would have boosted the players confidence, no matter what the outcome was. How do you develop killer instinct but to try to kill?
If you’re going to review the tape, please tell us what Jacob Bell did, good or bad.
By Will on Oct 19, 2009
Coach, the more I think about it, the more I agree. Win or lose, this is the Rams’ “learning year.” New coaches, so many new players, new schemes, and new attitude. But lumped in with that new “team first” attitude has to be a certain standard that should be met. If that standard is just playing it safe, rather than playing to win, then no thank you. We had enough of that in the Linehan years.
I think in many ways, this is a learning year for Spagnuolo as well. He has to learn a bit about himself, and what a team is going to demand of him in order to become a winner. He’s going to have to learn that he can push this team, and get more than they might think they’re capable of out of them.
By coachconnors on Oct 20, 2009
Clearly a massive undertaking, almost experiment in simulatenous learning curves, as we have rookies in HC, OC, and DC who have never held those posts before. Leadership sometimes doesn’t take hold right away. It worse even if the team is struggling only to lose.
I say when making this call you have to take into consideration this team’s situation, with this record, MORE so than the simple by-the-book stats about average percentage of suceess.
There is a psychology, a human factor, that has to be accounted for. Being safe got us nothing. Being a little aggressive and at least appearing confident maybe would’ve also lost but it wouldn’t have got us nothing. It would’ve paid dividends in the players minds…dividends that we would now enjoy even witrh the same L result.
Football is an emotional game. Momentum means something. Confidence means even more.
Besides, if I’m coaching that game and I know my D has been on the field for 2X as long as the offense, there’s no way I take a chance on putting them back out there…MJD had 133 yards and 3 TD’s for Pete’s sake. Look your offense in the eye and tell them “Men, you’re going to win this game right here, right now.”